# 3.14 - Probability

The student will

• investigate and describe the concept of probability as a measurement of chance and list possible outcomes for a single event.

### BIG IDEAS

• So that I understand that the likelihood of an event occurring can be described numerically
• So that I can analyze the chance of something happening and make educated predictions
• So that I can figure out all the possible outcomes in a game that I am playing that uses a spinner, a number cube

### UNDERSTANDING THE STANDARD

• A spirit of investigation and experimentation should permeate probability instruction, where students are actively engaged in explorations and have opportunities to use manipulatives.
• Investigation of experimental probability is continued at this level through informal activities using materials such as two-colored counters, spinners, and random number cubes.
• Probability is the measurement of chance of an event occurring.
• When a probability experiment has very few trials, the results can be misleading. The more times an experiment is done, the closer the experimental probability comes to the theoretical probability (e.g., a coin lands heads up half of the time).
• Students should have opportunities to describe in informal terms (e.g., impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain) the degree of likelihood of an event occurring. Activities should include real-life examples.
• For any event, such as flipping a coin, spinning a spinner, or rolling a number cube, the things that can happen are called outcomes. For example, there are two possible outcomes when flipping a coin: the coin can land heads up, or the coin can land tails up; when flipping a coin, each of the outcomes is equally likely.
• All possible outcomes of an experiment may be organized in a list, table, or chart.
• Experiences with probability that involve combinations occurs in grade five (e.g., How many different outfits can be made given three shirts and two pants?).

### ESSENTIALS

The student will use problem solving, mathematical communication, mathematical reasoning, connections, and representations to

• Define probability as the measurement of chance that an event will happen.
• List all possible outcomes for a single event (e.g., heads and tails are the two possible outcomes of flipping a coin).  Limit the number of outcomes to 12 or fewer.
• Describe the degree of likelihood of an outcome occurring using terms such as impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain.

### KEY VOCABULARY

Updated: Aug 22, 2018